Top Winners

Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if, on or before January 31, 2026, the United States conducts a direct military strike against targets within Iran. A strike is defined as the intentional use of U.S. armed forces to deliver kinetic military force, including airstrikes, missile strikes, naval-launched attacks, or ground attacks, against Iranian territory. Routine military movements, exercises, overflights without weapons release, cyber operations, covert actions absent overt kinetic force, or actions by non-state actors will not qualify. Accidental incidents or purely defensive interceptions occurring outside Iran will also not count. The market resolves to “No” if no qualifying strike occurs by 23:59 UTC on January 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. or Iranian governments and reporting from major international news organizations.