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Predictions this week: CFTC proposes to define event contracts as swaps; NFL sides with the states
In the week to Oct 11, the CFTC proposed defining event contracts as swaps, backing its claim to sole oversight, while the NFL and 39 states urged the Supreme Court to hear New Jersey's case against Kalshi. Kalshi took $3.53B of the $4.93B paid for contracts.
· VPX Team
Predictions this week: Polymarket traders cut Lula to 14% as Flávio Bolsonaro led Brazil's first round
In the week to Oct 4, Polymarket's price for Lula winning Brazil fell from 42.5% to 14% as Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% of the first-round vote. Traders moved towards a Fed hold after weak jobs data.
· VPX Team
The 2026 BC election, in data
Twelve voters in Surrey-Guildford stood between the NDP and a hung legislature in 2024. Our live report on the rematch covers every poll, 20,000 simulated elections, an interactive swingometer and what the markets say, riding by riding.
· VPX Team
Are prediction markets legal in Canada? Polymarket, Kalshi and the alternatives
Can Canadians use Polymarket or Kalshi? A plain-language guide to the binary options ban, the OSC's Polymarket settlement, the new CSA and CIRO rules, and the legal ways to trade predictions in Canada.
· VPX Team
VPX vs Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Novig vs Manifold: which prediction market is right for you?
A side-by-side comparison of five prediction markets for Canadians: real money or play money, availability in Canada, order book or AMM, APIs, private markets, bots and fees.
· VPX Team
How to run your own mock trading game
A short guide to running a mock trading game on VPX: set up a private futures market with a multiplier and price bounds, let players trade with quick commands, halt between rounds, and settle at the final value.
· VPX Team
How to run your own prediction market to bet with friends
A step by step guide to creating a private prediction market on VPX, inviting your friends, betting with play money, and settling the winner.
· VPX Team
The Future of the Toronto Prediction Exchange
Toronto Prediction Exchange has rebranded to the Vancouver Prediction Exchange. Learn about our move, our mission, and how you can get involved.
· VPX Team