· VPX Team
Predictions this week: CFTC proposes to define event contracts as swaps; NFL sides with the states
Predictions this week, October 5 to 11, 2026.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed on Oct 9 to define event contracts on sports, politics, culture and the weather as swaps, backing its claim that they are its alone to regulate. A day earlier the NFL told the Supreme Court that sports contracts are gambling for the states to oversee, saying its games drew $1.8B of the $3.3B traded on prediction markets on the season's first Sunday. Thirty-nine states and 145 tribal groups also asked the court to hear New Jersey's case against Kalshi, which must reply by Nov 9.
In this issue
- News: Kalshi examined three bets of under $100 placed before Trump's press secretary pick was reported.
- Volume: Traders paid $4.93B for contracts on the venues tracked, down 0.3% on the week before.
- Markets: Kalshi traders had the Cowboys at 83% before the Buccaneers won 24–16.
- Traders: joseph00677 topped Polymarket's weekly profit board with $1.6M.
- VPX: 6 traders made 19 trades worth T$19K, in play money that can't be cashed out.