· VPX Team
Predictions this week: Over $600M of Polymarket election trades came after the races ended, Wired says
Predictions this week, October 12 to 18, 2026.
In the week of Oct 12–18, Wired reported that over $600M traded in two Polymarket election markets after the races had been decided, most of it on long shots who lost. In Ethiopia's market, left open 123 days after the vote, a forensic analyst traced about $284M of roughly $285M to pairs of accounts trading with each other; Polymarket says it flagged the activity and blocked the accounts. The CFTC declined to say whether it was examining the trades.
In this issue
- News: Crypto.com and Novig sued Missouri, which wants sports contracts licensed and taxed at 10%.
- Volume: Traders paid $5.29B for contracts on the venues tracked; Kalshi took $3.76B, its most in 12 weeks.
- Markets: Kalshi traders had the Rams at 86% before the Cardinals won 18–16 with a last-second field goal.
- Traders: joseph00677 topped Polymarket's weekly profit board again, with $5.6M.
- VPX: In play money that can't be cashed out, 2 traders made 37 trades worth T$468K.