01
The news
Wired reported over $600M of Polymarket election trades after the races ended; Crypto.com and Novig sued Missouri, and Canada's CIRO tightened rules for brokers.
$284M
Traded between paired accounts on Polymarket's Ethiopia election
An analyst's estimate, of about $285M traded in a market left open 123 days after the vote; Polymarket says it flagged the activity and blocked the accounts.
Market integrity · Thu, Oct 15
Two Polymarket election markets traded over $600M after the races ended, Wired finds
Ethiopia's market stayed open 123 days after the vote, and an analyst traced about $284M of its $285M to paired accounts; Polymarket says it blocked them.
Regulation · Fri, Oct 16
Crypto.com and Novig sue Missouri over its demand that they stop sports contracts
Missouri told six operators to stop or get a licence and pay its 10% tax; both say only the CFTC can regulate them, and Kalshi and Polymarket had not sued by Oct 18.
Regulation · Fri, Oct 16
Canada's CIRO bars brokers from showing clients contracts they can't trade
Dealers such as Wealthsimple, which offers some Kalshi contracts, must keep sports and other barred contracts out of search, recommendations and marketing, and can't link to them.
Markets and the economy · Thu, Oct 15
Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows to 47% to 45% in Datafolha poll
Quaest had it 46% to 44%, a technical tie; Polymarket's price for a Lula win rose from 12.5% to 20.5% over the week before the Oct 25 runoff.
Also this week · Mon, Oct 12
Most Americans oppose betting on elections, a Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Some 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed it; 65% of the 4,506 adults polled opposed bets on US military action.
Regulation · Tue, Oct 13
Kalshi gives $5K to the re-election campaign of Idaho's attorney general
Raúl Labrador backs states against the CFTC on sports contracts; Labrador's office says no donation will change that, and Kalshi gave Idaho Republicans $15.5K and lists a market on the race.
Culture and publicity · Tue, Oct 13
NBA and WNBA plan a campaign on the risks of sports betting and prediction markets
Made with the National Council on Problem Gambling, it targets young adults this season and puts prediction markets alongside sportsbooks as a financial risk.
New exchanges and products · Thu, Oct 15
Hacksaw launches a prediction market platform for operators under a Malta licence
The games developer got the Malta Gaming Authority's approval for peer-to-peer prediction market services; it has not named an operator or a launch date.
02
The money
Traders paid $5.29B for contracts on the venues tracked; Kalshi led with $3.76B, up 6.5% on the week before and a 12-week high ($21.5B at $1 payout).
Twelve weeks of volume, exchange by exchange
July 27 to August 2, 2026
$0
Dollars paid for contracts each week, from DefiLlama. Exchanges often quote notional volume, which counts every contract at $1 and is larger.
Who had the week
- Kalshi71%$3.8B
- Polymarket11%$558.4M
- Polymarket US13%$701M
- Opinion1%$58.1M
- Others4%$212.1M
Day by day
Every exchange this week
| Exchange | Volume | vs last week | Share | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $3.8B | +6% | 71% | $1.8B |
| Polymarket US | $701M | −7% | 13% | $208.8M |
| Polymarket | $558.4M | +13% | 11% | $350.2M |
| Predict.fun | $103.4M | +28% | 2% | — |
| Opinion | $58.1M | −10% | 1% | $3.1M |
| SX Bet V3 | $27.1M | — | 1% | $304.2K |
| MagicMarkets | $21.9M | +52% | 0% | — |
| Hyperliquid Outcomes | $17.9M | +90% | 0% | — |
| XO Market | $16.5M | +33% | 0% | — |
| TurboFlow Prediction Markets | $11.5M | +16% | 0% | — |
| Polymarket Combos | $6.2M | +20% | 0% | — |
| world | $3.3M | +27% | 0% | — |
| Overtime | $2.2M | +36% | 0% | — |
| PancakeSwap Prediction | $2.1M | +8% | 0% | — |
03
The markets
Kalshi traders had the Rams at 86% before the Cardinals won 18–16; the Brewers rose from 25.8% to 63.5% for the title after sweeping the Dodgers, and Lula from 12.5% to 20.5%.
Where the money went
Polymarket
Each bubble is a market, sized by what traded on it this week. Kalshi counts contracts at $1 and Polymarket the dollars paid, so compare sizes within each exchange.
What moved
Lula wins Brazil
from 13% at the start of the week
The market we noted last week rose from 12.5% to 20.5% as Datafolha put Flávio Bolsonaro's lead at 47% to 45%, down from 49% to 45%
Roadster 0-60 under 1 second
from 20% at the start of the week
Rose from 19.5% to 99.95% after Tesla claimed a 0.81-second 0-60 mph run at its Roadster demo on Oct 15; Electrek questioned the timing
Brewers win World Series
from 26% at the start of the week
Rose from 25.8% to 63.5% as the Brewers swept the two-time champion Dodgers to reach their first World Series since 1982; Game 1 is Oct 23
Rams beat Cardinals
from 86% at the start of the week
The Rams started the week at 86%; the Cardinals, 1–4 coming in, won 18–16 with a 43-yard field goal as time expired
Flávio wins runoff by 4–8 pts
from 49% at the start of the week
Texans win AFC South
from 14% at the start of the week
04
Called it?
What each market paid for the outcome as the week began, and what happened.
Ringed: an upset. Point at a dot for the market.
05
Your call
Guess the odds, then see what traders are paying.
Kalshi
Commanders beat 49ers
You: 50%
Kalshi
76ers beat Knicks
You: 50%
Polymarket
Vučić's list wins most seats
You: 50%
06
The winners
joseph00677 topped Polymarket's weekly profit board again, with $5.6M on $34.1M traded, and made $1.54M on Real Madrid in Rome; BreakTheBank made $974K on the Broncos.
Most profit this week
- 4Mooseborzoiii+$912.6K
- 5OhWhenTheReds+$911.3K
- 6e46m3+$773.5K
- 7takeormake+$646.3K
- 80x361b16e3ddfe1d415d41008daac2631d94ab74fe+$645.8K
Biggest single wins
Diabolical-Prize staked $474.8K, collected $2M
joseph00677 staked $1.7M, collected $3.3M
joseph00677 staked $1.6M, collected $2.9M
Mooseborzoiii staked $524.3K, collected $1.8M
- +$974.5K
BreakTheBank staked $767K, collected $1.7M
joseph00677 staked $2.1M, collected $3M
Polymarket's public leaderboard over the seven days to collection. Names are the ones traders chose.
07
On VPX
In play money that can't be cashed out, 2 traders made 37 trades worth T$468K, up from T$19K, nearly all on which party wins most seats in BC's Oct 24 election.
- T$468.1K
- traded, +2361% on the week before
- 2
- traders
- 37
- fills
- 3
- new members
- T$556.1K
- on offer in the order books
- 252
- open markets
Volume by week, T$
Busiest on VPX
- Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 BC election?: BC NDPT$117K · 12%
- Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 BC election?: GreenT$117K · 1%
- Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 BC election?: ConservativeT$117K · 86%
- Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 BC election?: Anyone elseT$117K · 1%
- Bank of Canada Decision in October?: 25 bps increaseT$100 · 18%
08
The week ahead
The World Series from Oct 23, BC's election on Oct 24, Brazil's runoff and Serbia's election on Oct 25, the Fed and Bank of Canada on Oct 28 and the US midterms on Nov 3.