· VPX Team
The 2026 BC election, in data
British Columbia votes on October 24. We have put everything we know about the election into one live report: The 2026 BC election, in data. Its figures update as new polls come out and the markets move.
The election that came down to twelve voters
In October 2024 the NDP won 47 of the 93 seats, the smallest majority there can be. The Conservatives, who had won no seats in 2020, took 44 and the Greens 2.
The closest race was Surrey-Guildford, which the NDP won by 22 votes. If 12 of its voters had switched to the Conservative candidate, the NDP would have lost its majority. That is one voter in every 175,000 who cast a ballot across the province. Two hundred voters switching in three ridings would have given the Conservatives a majority of their own.
What is in the report
- Where 2024 left off. The vote against the seats, every race placed by how close it was, and the handful of ridings that decided who governs.
- Who is running. Which MLAs are standing again, the seven who have changed party since 2024, and the candidates named so far.
- The polls. Every province-wide poll this year, the trend through them, and which way each pollster leans compared with the others.
- From votes to seats. How often each party won a majority in 20,000 simulated elections, and a swingometer: drag the gap between the NDP and the Conservatives and watch the seats and the map change.
- What the markets say. How the prices on VPX's markets for the most seats, the premier and a majority have moved since they opened, and the ridings where traders disagree most with the polls.
- The battleground. Which seats are leaning away from the party that won them in 2024, region by region.
Every riding also has its own page on the election hub, with the candidates, the 2024 result and its odds. If you think the odds are wrong, you can trade on them there with play money.