01
Where 2024 left off
In October 2024 the NDP won 47 of the 93 seats, the smallest majority there can be. The Conservatives, who had won no seats in 2020, won 44. 22 ridings were decided by under five points, and the closest, Surrey-Guildford, by 22 votes.
12 voters changing their minds, in one riding, would have cost the NDP its majority.
The vote and the seats
The NDP took 44.9% of the vote and 50.5% of the seats. The Conservatives took 43.3% of the vote and 47.3% of the seats. Everyone outside the three parties won 3.6% of the vote and no seats at all.
Elections BC, Statement of Votes, 2024. Others are mostly former BC United MLAs who ran as independents.
Every race, by how close it was
Each dot is a riding, placed by the gap between the Conservative and NDP shares of its vote and coloured by who won it. Ringed are the seats that decided the majority. Point at one for its result.
How few votes it would have taken
Voters who would have had to switch from the winner to the runner-up, in the narrowest seats, to change the result.
12
voters switching would have cost the NDP its majority. That is one in every 175,445 who voted.
- Surrey-Guildford12 from NDP to Conservative
200
voters switching would have given the Conservatives a majority of their own. That is one in every 10,527 who voted.
- Surrey-Guildford12 from NDP to Conservative
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat71 from NDP to Conservative
- Surrey City Centre117 from NDP to Conservative
Each seat needs one more than half its margin to switch. Turnout and everyone else's votes are held as they were.
02
Who is running
80 of the 91 sitting MLAs are running again in their own seats, and seven have said they will not. Seven MLAs now sit for a different party than the one they were elected for, all of them elected as Conservative candidates.
The MLAs, and whether they are running
Each square is a seat, in the colour of the party its MLA sits for now.
Candidates and incumbents as of September 27, 2026.
MLAs who changed sides
- Tara ArmstrongConservative → Independent
- Jordan KealyConservative → Independent
- Amelia BoultbeeConservative → BC NDP
- Hon ChanConservative → Independent
- Brent ChapmanConservative → OneBC
- Elenore SturkoConservative → CentreBC
- Dallas BrodieConservative → OneBC
Candidates named so far
136 candidates in 88 of the 93 ridings: 8 accepted by Elections BC, 118 announced by their party, 10 reported in the news.
- BC NDP58
- Conservative51
- CentreBC9
- Green8
- OneBC7
- Independent1
- Libertarian1
- No affiliation1
Each bar runs to 93, a candidate in every riding.
03
The polls
Nine pollsters have put out 18 province-wide polls since January 26, 2026. Weighted toward the newest and largest, they have the NDP ahead by 1.6 points: NDP 40.3%, Conservative 38.7%, Green 12.0%.
The race, poll by poll
Each stem is a poll's gap between the two main parties, up for a Conservative lead and down for an NDP one. Point at one for its numbers.
Every party, every poll
Each poll as a dot per party, with a trend through them.
- BC NDP
- BC Conservatives
- BC Greens
- Others
Which way the pollsters lean
Each pollster's polls against the other pollsters' trend at the time. Angus Reid's 5 polls have run 8.6 points more Conservative than the rest, on average. Research Co.'s 2 polls have run 7.9 points more NDP.
A lean is the average gap between a pollster's Conservative lead and a trend of the other pollsters' polls, weighted by sample size and by how close together they were taken. Few polls make for a rough estimate.
04
From votes to seats
A lead in the vote is not a lead in seats. The poll model moves every riding from its 2024 result by the swing in the polls, then plays the election 20,000 times with the polls wrong by different amounts each time: across the province, by region and riding by riding. On the polls alone, the NDP wins a majority in 52% of them, the Conservatives in 34%, and nobody in 15%.
20,000 elections
How often each party won each number of seats. The NDP's results are above the line and the Conservatives' below it; the shaded side of the line is a majority.
The polls alone, without the markets. Polls are assumed to miss the final margin by about 4 points, and by more the further out the vote is.
Move the polls yourself
Drag the gap between the two main parties and the model plays the election again, in your browser. The Greens and the others stay where the polls have them.
47
seats on average · 36 to 57
Majority 51% · Most seats 59%
43
seats on average · 33 to 54
Majority 33% · Most seats 41%
Seats on average, at every lead. The parties are even money for the most seats with the NDP ahead by 0.6 points in the vote, not at a tie.
Out of 93.
Each position runs 2,500 elections, so the numbers wobble a seat or so from the hub's. The curve shows the average seats at every gap.
05
What the markets say
Every riding and every province-wide question has a market on VPX, where people trade with play money on what will happen. A price of 60¢ is a 60% chance. VPX quotes every market itself, from its own read of the race, and anyone can trade against those quotes and move them.
- 96
- questions with a market
- $129.7K
- in play money on offer
- $1,250
- in play money traded
The province-wide markets since they opened
The price of each outcome, hour by hour. Marks under the chart are polls, on the last day each was in the field.
Some early prices are Polymarket's for the same question, from before VPX's own books opened.
Markets against the polls, riding by riding
Each dot is a riding with a market, in the colour of the party favoured there. The further a dot is from the diagonal, the more the market disagrees with the poll model. The model sees only parties; a market can also price the people running, such as a sitting MLA who switched sides.
Where they disagree most
- Coquitlam-Burke MountainNDP 59% → 31%
- Richmond-StevestonNDP 60% → 33%
- Surrey-GuildfordNDP 51% → 24%
- Surrey City CentreNDP 58% → 31%
- Vancouver-LangaraNDP 62% → 35%
- Vernon-LumbyNDP 60% → 34%
The poll model's chance, then the market's.
06
The battleground
Putting the markets and the polls together, the NDP is favoured in 39 ridings and the Conservatives in 52 ridings. Eight seats would change hands if every favourite won.
Where the seats are moving
Seats by the party that won them in 2024, and the party favoured in them today.
Region by region
Every seat, grouped by region. Each turns over from the party that won it in 2024 to how it leans today; outlined are seats with a new favourite.
Seats that could change hands
Favoured today to go to a party that did not win them in 2024.
- Surrey-GuildfordSurreyLean Conservative76%
- Coquitlam-Burke MountainBurnaby and Tri-CitiesLean Conservative69%
- Surrey City CentreSurreyLean Conservative69%
- Richmond-StevestonRichmond and DeltaLean Conservative67%
- Vernon-LumbyThompson-OkanaganLean Conservative66%
- Vancouver-LangaraVancouverLean Conservative65%
- Surrey-FleetwoodSurreyToss-up59%
- Juan de Fuca-MalahatGreater VictoriaToss-up58%
07
About the data
Where every number in this report comes from.
The 2024 results are Elections BC's Statement of Votes. Candidates, incumbents and party changes are from Elections BC's accepted nominations, the parties and news reports, as of September 27, 2026.
Polls are every province-wide poll this year that could be checked against the pollster's own release, as of September 27, 2026. Each is counted for decided and leaning voters.
The poll model, its 20,000 elections and the way market prices are blended with it are the same as the election hub's, where each riding also has a page of its own.
Market prices are read from VPX's order books as the page loads, at most a minute old. VPX is a prediction market where people trade with play money.