· VPX Team
VPX vs Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Novig vs Manifold: which prediction market is right for you?
Five prediction markets come up most often: Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Manifold and the Vancouver Prediction Exchange (VPX). They look alike on the surface, since you buy YES or NO on a question and the price reads as a probability, but they differ on money, access and tools. Here is how they compare for someone in Canada.
Last updated September 25, 2026. Platforms change their rules often, so check each link before you rely on it.
At a glance
| VPX | Polymarket | Kalshi | Novig | Manifold | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real money? | No. Play money (T$) that cannot be bought or cashed out | Yes, in USDC | Yes, in US dollars | Yes, in US dollars | No. Play money (mana) that can be bought but not cashed out |
| Available in Canada? | Yes | Close-only in ON, QC, BC and AB; not blocked elsewhere | Canada is restricted; some contracts via Wealthsimple Predict | No. US only, except Arizona, Nevada and Michigan | Yes |
| Order book or AMM? | Limit order book | Order book (CLOB) | Order book | Order book | AMM plus limit orders |
| Public API? | Yes, REST + OpenAPI | Yes, CLOB API | Yes, REST, WebSocket and FIX | Yes, REST and WebSocket | Yes, REST |
| Private markets for friends? | Yes, free | No | No | No | Unlisted markets (hidden from search, not private) |
| Bots allowed? | Yes, see the bot guide | Yes, through the API | Yes, through the API | Yes, through the API | Yes, explicitly permitted |
| Fees | None | Taker fees on some categories, makers pay nothing | Taker fee of 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price), rounded up | Taker fees on live, futures and parlay trades; pre-game trades and makers pay nothing | Paid in mana only |
VPX: best for learning the order book and betting with friends
VPX is a Canadian play-money exchange. It uses the same limit order book as a real exchange: YES and NO shares trade from 1¢ to 99¢, a winning share pays 100¢, and prices move only when people trade. That makes it a good place to learn how order books, spreads and market making work before you risk money anywhere.
- Private markets for free. Set up a market for your group chat in about ten minutes. See how to run your own prediction market.
- Bots welcome. The trading bot guide gets a market maker quoting in Python or Node.js.
- Where others are better. VPX is smaller than the others, with fewer markets and thinner books. It is play money only and is not licensed or regulated, so there is nothing to win in dollars.
Polymarket: best for the widest range of real-money markets
Polymarket is a crypto prediction market that settles in USDC, with markets on politics, world events, sports and more. It runs a central limit order book with a full trading API.
- Where it is better. Far more markets and far more volume than VPX, and prices that move on real stakes.
- The catch for Canadians. It is close-only in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta. Ontario's securities regulator fined its operators in 2025. See are prediction markets legal in Canada? for the full story.
Kalshi: best for regulated real-money trading on the economy
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, with an order book and a mature API for traders and market makers.
- Where it is better. Regulated, real-money trading with a clear fee schedule and serious market makers.
- The catch for Canadians. You cannot open a Kalshi account from Canada. Through Wealthsimple Predict you can trade about 4,000 Kalshi contracts on the economy, markets and climate, with at least 30 days to expiry. There are no sports or politics.
Novig: best for trading sports without a house edge
Novig is a US sports exchange. Its operator, Ludlow Exchange, became a CFTC-regulated exchange in June 2026, the same status as Kalshi. You trade YES and NO contracts on football, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf, tennis and MMA against other people, not a sportsbook, so there is no vig built into the price.
- Where it is better. Real-money sports trading with no fees on pre-game trades or for makers, and a trading API for bots.
- The catch for Canadians. Novig is only available in the US, and only sports. Nothing on politics, the economy or anything else.
Manifold: best for asking any question you can think of
Manifold is a play-money site with a large community. Anyone can create a market on almost anything, and an automated market maker means you can always trade instantly.
- Where it is better. A much bigger community and more questions than VPX, plus instant trades thanks to the AMM.
- Where VPX differs. Manifold's AMM does not work like a real exchange's order book, and its unlisted markets are hidden from the homepage and search rather than limited to people you invite. VPX's private markets are joined by invite link or access code.
Which one should you pick?
- Real money on the economy, from Canada: Wealthsimple Predict (Kalshi contracts) or Interactive Brokers Canada.
- Real money on everything else: no regulator-approved option in Canada yet. See the legality guide.
- Real-money sports, from the US: Novig.
- A huge range of play-money questions: Manifold.
- An order book to learn on, a private market for friends, or a bot sandbox: VPX.