· VPX Team
Predictions this week: Polymarket traders cut Lula to 14% as Flávio Bolsonaro led Brazil's first round
Predictions this week, September 28 to October 4, 2026.
Brazil's first round on Oct 4 gave the week its biggest move. Polls had Lula ahead, but Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% of the vote to Lula's 45%, and Polymarket's price for a Lula win fell from 42.5% to 14% over the week of Sept 28. The two meet in a runoff on Oct 25. In the US, a weak September jobs report pushed traders towards the Fed holding rates in October.
In this issue
- News: Kalshi was reported to be in talks to raise about $1B at a valuation near $40B, while Ohio vowed to enforce its gambling law against it.
- Volume: Kalshi's week isn't in yet; Polymarket US led the rest with $694M paid for contracts, up 1% on the week.
- Markets: The price of a Fed hold in October rose from 33.5% to 82.5% after payrolls grew by just 29,000.
- Traders: mooseborzoii topped Polymarket's weekly profit board with $1.6M.
- VPX: 9 traders made 133 trades worth T$125K in play money, up from T$10.2K the week before, most of it on whether the US strikes Cuba in 2026.