Rules

This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single incident results in at least 1,000 deaths where an artificial intelligence system is determined to be either the direct cause or the proximate enabling cause. The AI system must have played a necessary and substantial role in the event — meaning the incident would not have occurred, or would not have reached the 1,000-death threshold, without the AI's involvement. Qualifying scenarios include but are not limited to: an autonomous weapons system, an AI-directed infrastructure failure, an AI-enabled bioweapon, or a critical system malfunction caused by AI decision-making. The deaths must result from a single event or a closely connected chain of events occurring within a 72-hour window. Incidents where AI played only a minor or incidental role (e.g., a human attacker who used a generic chatbot for background research) do not qualify. Resolution will be based on official findings from government investigations, UN agency reports, or a consensus of at least three major international news outlets attributing the incident primarily to AI involvement.