Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) is formally cancelled at any point during calendar year 2026. Cancellation is defined as an official withdrawal by one or more parties in accordance with the treaty’s termination provisions, resulting in the agreement ceasing to be in force. Public threats, policy statements, renegotiation talks, tariff actions taken within the framework of the agreement, or the initiation of withdrawal procedures without the agreement actually terminating will not qualify. Amendments or revisions that leave the agreement in force will also not count. The market resolves to “No” if CUSMA/USMCA remains in force through 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official government announcements, treaty status notifications, and reporting from major international news organizations.