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Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is formally invoked with respect to the President at any point between January 1 and January 31, 2026 (inclusive). “Invocation” means that the Vice President and a majority of the principal officers of the Cabinet (or another body as provided by law) submit written notice to the leaders of the House and Senate that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, or the President voluntarily declares inability to discharge the powers and duties under Section 3. A mere proposal, discussion, resolution in Congress, press statements, or calls by public figures without the official written transmission required under the 25th Amendment do not count. The market does not require removal from office; it only requires that the procedural steps for invoking the 25th Amendment be completed as documented. The market resolves to “No” if no such invocation occurs by 23:59 UTC on January 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official filings with Congress and reporting from major national news organizations.