Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point during calendar year 2026, the United States conducts a military invasion of Greenland. For the purposes of this market, an invasion is defined as the use of U.S. armed forces to enter Greenland without the consent of the Government of Denmark or a recognized Greenlandic authority, with the intent to seize, occupy, or exert control over territory. Routine military presence, joint exercises, basing arrangements, transit, or deployments conducted with Danish or Greenlandic consent will not constitute an invasion. Diplomatic statements, economic measures, cyber operations, or covert actions absent overt troop deployment will also not qualify. The market resolves to “No” if no such invasion occurs by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on reporting from major international news organizations and official statements from relevant governments.