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Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a final ruling on or before January 31, 2026 that upholds, in whole or in substantial part, the legality of tariffs imposed by Donald J. Trump under legal challenge. A ruling in favour is defined as a decision that affirms the government’s authority to impose the tariffs or rejects claims seeking to invalidate them. Interim orders, procedural rulings, stays, remands without a substantive decision on the merits, or lower court decisions will not qualify. A mixed ruling will count as “Yes” only if the core tariff authority challenged in the case is upheld. The market resolves to “No” if the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs or if no qualifying ruling is issued by 23:59 UTC on January 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on the Court’s published opinions and reporting from major legal and national news organizations. A lack of ruling will result in a "No" resolution.