Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is widely reported to have ended at any point during March 2026. An end to the war is defined as a formal ceasefire, armistice, peace agreement, or official declaration by the main combatants that hostilities have ceased. Temporary pauses in fighting, humanitarian pauses, or short-term de-escalation without a recognized end to hostilities do not qualify. The market resolves to “No” if the conflict is still ongoing as of 23:59 UTC on March 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on reporting from major international news organizations and official statements from the governments involved. Recent reporting indicates the conflict is currently ongoing with continuing strikes and casualties across the region.