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Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if Canada formally deploys Canadian Armed Forces personnel to Greenland on a mission that involves actual movement of troops into Greenland at any point between now and 23:59 UTC on January 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, a deployment must be publicly confirmed by Canadian government or military authorities and involve boots on the ground in Greenland — participation in exercises or NATO operations with arrival in Greenland counts. Planning talks, considerations, drafts of contingency plans, or proposals that have not yet been executed do not qualify. Routine joint Arctic patrols or exercises not involving movement into Greenland itself also do not count. The market resolves to “No” if no such confirmed troop deployment has occurred by 23:59 UTC on January 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements and reporting from major national or international news organizations.