Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Liberal Party of Canada secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons (172 or more out of 343) at any point before 23:59 EST on May 31, 2026. A majority can be achieved either through election results (including snap or general elections called before May) or through changes in caucus membership (e.g., floor crossings) that bring the Liberals above the 172-seat threshold. The market resolves to “No” if the Liberals do not hold a majority by that date. Resolution will be based on official parliamentary seat counts as published by Elections Canada and recognized legislative records.