Rules

This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2035, the World Health Organization declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in response to a novel pathogen whose infection fatality rate (IFR) is estimated at 1% or higher. Both conditions must be met: (1) the WHO must formally declare a PHEIC specifically naming the pathogen, and (2) credible peer-reviewed studies or official WHO estimates must place the overall IFR at ≥1% across the general population, based on data from at least three countries. The pathogen must be novel, meaning a newly identified virus, bacterium, fungus, or prion — re-emergences of known pathogens (e.g., a new Ebola outbreak of a known strain) do not qualify unless significant genetic mutation produces what the WHO classifies as a functionally new pathogen. IFR estimates must reflect the general infected population, not case fatality rates drawn solely from hospitalized patients. If initial estimates exceed 1% but are later revised below that threshold as more data becomes available, the market resolves based on the WHO's or a consensus of peer-reviewed estimates published within 12 months of the PHEIC declaration. Seasonal influenza strains and previously declared PHEICs prior to market creation do not qualify.