Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point during calendar year 2026, the United States conducts a direct military strike against targets within Cuba. A strike is defined as the use of U.S. armed forces to deliver kinetic military force, including airstrikes, missile strikes, naval gunfire, or ground attacks, against Cuban territory. Routine military movements, exercises, overflights without weapons release, cyber operations, covert actions without overt use of force, or incidents involving non-state actors will not qualify. Accidental incursions or isolated defensive actions without an intentional strike will also not count. The market resolves to “No” if no such strike occurs by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. or Cuban governments and reporting from major international news organizations.