US Civil War in January?

Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if, during the month of January 2026, the United States experiences a civil war, defined as sustained, organized armed conflict between identifiable domestic factions involving large-scale violence and recognized by major governments or international organizations as a civil war. Isolated riots, protests, terrorist attacks, assassinations, coups, insurrections, or localized armed clashes that do not rise to the level of a broadly recognized civil war will not qualify. The market resolves to “No” if no such civil war is recognized by 23:59 EST on January 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on reporting from major international news organizations and statements from U.S. or international authorities.