VPX CALIBRATION TEST
How well do you know what you don't know?
Anyone can sound sure. Good forecasters are right about how sure they should be. Answer 20 real prediction-market questions and find out how your confidence holds up against what actually happened, and against the market.
Exam rules
- 1
20 questions that really resolved on prediction markets, half YES and half NO. For each one, say how likely it was to happen, from 1% to 99%.
- 2
40 seconds per question, on the server's clock. You can't go back, and running out of time locks in your current answer.
- 3
Stay on the tab. Leaving it or copying a question is a strike, and 3 strikes void certification.
- 4
Results that are too good to be honest, like near-certain answers that never miss or slow answers that look looked-up, aren't certified.
Your CQ
The Calibration Quotient is your Brier score on an IQ-style scale. Answering 50% to everything scores exactly 100; every 0.05 of Brier score is 15 points. Certified results come with a verifiable certificate you can add to LinkedIn.
- Oracle
- 140+
- Elite
- 125–139
- Sharp
- 112–124
- Calibrated
- 100–111
- Uncalibrated
- below 100