missed-mall37 scored 99

A CQ of 100 is what you get by answering 50% to everything.

The market: CQ 107
Closer than the crowd: 7 of 20
Brier score: 0.253

You were 10 points overconfident: on average you were more sure than your hit rate justified.

Trading these answers

+$44,710

Buying YES or NO at the market's price on each question's date, 1,000 shares for every point between the answer and the price, held until it resolved. 7 of 20 trades made money.

Certified result

Proctored, on questions never seen before. On the leaderboard.

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Calibration

Dashed line: perfect calibration. Points below it mean you were more sure than you should have been.

When you were…

Sure	Answers	Right
51–59%	5	4 (80%)
60–69%	7	2 (29%)
70–79%	2	1 (50%)
80–89%	4	3 (75%)
90–99%	0	–

How calibrated are you?

20 real prediction-market questions, 40 seconds each.

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